Here and There

But this blogger (who blogs from work regularly) can no longer keep up.

I turn you over to my touchstone, Democratic Convention Watch, who reports several Clinton-to-Obama defections, 10 Edwards superdels, and many, many more.

Obama is easily within striking distance of 2,117 or 2,118, whatever. He may even get to that number before votes are counted in South Dakota and Montana. His speech tonight is a victory speech.

The question remains what Hillary will say. And whether anyone should care.

Mississippi’s Carnelia Fondren.

The Obama campaign claims two more from Michigan, but I can’t find an independent verification just yet. They also count Jimmy Carter, who has said he’s waiting for polls to close. I don’t count ‘em till the words leave their pretty little superdelegate mouths.

29

Massachusetts’ Deb Kozikowski.

30

Coming … out… of… the … woodwork.

Seven superdelegates for a gain of six (two were from Michigan).

Magic number: 31

And so, about 20 more superdelegates throughout the day would do it. DCW has Massachusetts Rep. John Olver, so really, I’m just missing two.

The Chicago Tribune maps the coming drip.

What a day it should be …

I wanted to wait until the words left his mouth. Apparently, they have.

40 to clinch. That number needs to get down to about 17 or so for Obama to wrap things up tonight, concession or no concession.

I wonder whose words I’ll be paying more attention to tonight — hers or his. I care more about his message, of course, but I’m so curious to see whether she’ll morph back into a human being and be gracious and respectful.

With the addition of Michigan’s Joyce Lalonde and Missouri’s Maria Chappelle-Nadal, Obama now needs 41 delegates, pledged and unpledged, to secure the nomination and send Hillary back to Chappaqua.

He has now surpassed my prediction of seven superdelegates between yesterday and today. Lalonde and Chappelle-Nadal make seven and eight.

Seattle attorney and Democratic National Committee member David McDonald endorses Obama, bringing the Magic Number down to 42.5.

Florida superdelegate Janee Murphy endorses Obama today.

New magic: 43.5.

Wow, I’m not quite sure about that headline, either.

Point is, two Michigan superdelegates endorsed Obama today. That’s four human beings total for the day, but a total of three supers (Michigan supers count for a half vote, per the RBC meeting two days ago).

New magic clinch number: 44.

Virginia’s Jerome Wiley Segovia and Connecticut’s Nancy DiNardo endorse Obama today.

Eye on the prize: 45

They’re the last ones. I can’t not lay out my predictions:

Montana:
Vote:
Obama 62%, Clinton 38%

Delegates:
Obama 9, Clinton 6

South Dakota:
Vote:
Obama 52%, Clinton 48%

Delegates:
Obama 8, Clinton 7

Supplement random prediction:
Monday and Tuesday will net Obama a total of 7 superdelegates. Wednesday will provide between 40-50, thereby fully affording him the right to declare himself the nominee. Thursday will see the vast majority of not-yet-endorsed supers come forward. And the remainders will continue to pour in for the next week or so.

Being the honorary first superdelegates to endorse Obama after the RBC meeting yesterday, Maine’s Gwethalyn Phillips and Nevada’s Yvonne Gates endorsed today.

Added to expected gains from Puerto Rico (15 delegates), this brings the nomination clinch number to 47.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC voted in favor of seating the full delegations from the renegade states of Florida and Michigan, but each of these states’ delegates will get .5 votes.

The committee also agreed to the Michigan Democratic Party’s proposal to split that state’s delegates 69-59 in Hillary Clinton’s favor. Halved, that means Clinton picked up 38 in MI (pledged and supers) and 56.5 in FL. Obama netted 32 in Michigan and 36 in Florida.

Clinton wins the day 84.5-68. She’ll gain even more tomorrow in Puerto Rico.

But Obama is just 64 away from the new magic number of 2,117, according to DemConWatch.

Oh, and Harold Ickes is a devilish cock.

With the latest endorsements, Barack Obama is now within a decent showing in the three upcoming elections. Predictions to come, but my estimates show him picking up a little more than 40 between now and Tuesday. Remaining superdelegate endorsements, plus any fair seating of Florida and Michigan delegates, put him over the top, where we’ve all known for some time that he was destined.

For the record, DemConWatch now has him needing 41 to clinch

Caveat: I don’t expect Clinton to go anywhere. I fully expect challenges, appeals, lawsuits, and it could easily become exactly the media narrative she wants. The biggies in the party, Reid, Gore, Pelosi, Carter, Mitchell, they’ll show support for Obama next week, but no matter. It’s about to get ugly, y’all.